The Sun and Climate Change (Guest: Dr. Willie Soon) — The Climate Realism Show #151
Download MP3And that's what climate change is about. It is literally not figuratively a clear and present danger.
Greta Thunberg:We are are in the beginning of a mass extinction.
Jim Lakely:The ability of c o two to do the heavy work of creating a climate catastrophe is almost nil at this point.
Anthony Watts:The price of oil has been artificially elevated to the point of insanity.
Sterling Burnett:That's not how you power a modern industrial system. The ultimate goal of this renewable energy, you know, plan is to reach the exact same point that we're at now. You know who's trying that? Germany. Seven Straight Days of no win for Germany.
Sterling Burnett:Their factories are shutting down.
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Jim Lakely:Today, we have with us Anthony Watts, senior fellow at the Heartland Institute and the publisher of the most influential climate website in the world. What's up with that? We have Linea Lukin. She is a research fellow for energy and environment policy at Heartland. And we are so happy to welcome back a friend and our very special guest, astrophysicist Willie Soon.
Jim Lakely:He's one of the world's leading authorities on the sun's effect on the climate and he's with the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences or CERES and has spoken, I think Willie, at least 10 of our 15 international conferences that time has changed. Yes. So welcome, Willie. Great to have you here.
Willie Soon:Oh, thank you for inviting me. It's an honor.
Jim Lakely:Yes, we could. We've got a lot of. We have a very lively chat here on both YouTube and Rumble and your name comes up all the time. And so we're glad to satisfy those chatters.
Willie Soon:I wonder why.
Jim Lakely:Yes. You you do. You are quite popular. In fact, I was telling you before you went on the air, you're you're able to or your ability to land an interview with Tucker Carlson was kind of game changing. I keep seeing it.
Jim Lakely:What was that? It was like at least six months ago and that has been viewed millions of times on X, so congratulations on that.
Willie Soon:Yeah, on X it's at least 6,400,000 that I know. It's a big number. Anyway, it's really a blessing, of course, so that we can spread the message of science, all the great work by Heartland Institute as well. You know, you are my oldest friends. You always been very, very kind to me and allowing me to speak in all in all your conferences.
Willie Soon:Yeah. Anyway, we are we are we are hanging out with good people, so it's never gonna go wrong. So
Jim Lakely:Yes. Well, apparently, the standard for having Willie Soon on your program is 6,000,000 views. So we're gonna hold you to that. Yeah. I hope video gets viewed
Willie Soon:Subscribe and donate. Do all you can, please.
Jim Lakely:All right. Well, let's get to it. Got a lot to get into today. I mean, as I said, Willie is one of the world's leading experts on the sun's effect on climate. And he's going to be talking about that during this program.
Jim Lakely:But let's start off as we always do with the crazy climate news of the week. Hit it, Andy. Yes. Thank you very much, Bill Nye. So, our first item today is, the climate cult got snowed in.
Jim Lakely:This is from SF Gate. 300 California conference attendees need snow rescue after running low on food. I love stories like this. We call this the Al Gore effect. So here we go.
Jim Lakely:San Bernardino County Firefighters had to rescue attendees of a climate action conference near Big Bear on March 13 after they became stranded due to heavy snowfall. The incident occurred at YMCA Camp Whittle in Fawnskin, the department said in a post on X. Some of the 300 attendees tried to reach buses waiting near cleared roads by trekking through approximately two feet of snow, but the buses became stuck almost two miles away from the camp near San Bernardino County Fire Station ninety six, the LA Daily News reported. San Bernardino County Fire Captain Ansley Muscarello described the immediate chaos to the daily news. Within a few minutes, we had a couple hundred people standing in a blizzard in front of our station, waiting to get on these buses that were getting stuck and didn't know the best way to get down.
Jim Lakely:So firefighters had to use the station's snow cat to evacuate dozens of attendees who had remained at Camp Whittle before nightfall, the expo said, just as the facility had run out of food. Oh my gosh. Muscarello told the Daily News that people had left facing a long trek. It took them like an hour to walk down in a blizzard and two feet of snow, and these people really weren't prepared for anything of that nature. Now, Anthony, I mean, how could they not be prepared?
Jim Lakely:Aren't these the same people that tell us that global warming causes all kinds of extreme weather, including blizzards? So, and on top of that, how can somebody in the twenty first century with weather forecasts and radar literally in their hands and their smartphone at all times possibly get caught in a situation like this?
Anthony Watts:Well, no one ever said climate activists were smart. So let's just leave it at that. That's about really all I can say. But you know, if they just don't think things through and that's the problem with a lot of climate alarmism, It's all faith based, you know, and there's not a lot of logic behind it. And so this is perfectly illustrated in this event where they go to a climate conference, get snowed in, and have to be rescued.
Anthony Watts:They just didn't think it through because logic and so forth is not part of their mindset.
Willie Soon:Don't forget, they have peer reviewed science that says that the snow is gonna go away. I mean, I checked that for sure. They have peer reviewed science. I mean, come on. So Yeah.
Willie Soon:They can't back it off from now. It's just nonsense from day zero, actually. Every time they say something, you have to really, really recheck, you have to look, you have to really be very careful or else you'll be really smelly after that. These people are just up to no good. There's not a single thing that they say is of any use to us.
Willie Soon:Thank you.
Anthony Watts:I'm thinking maybe Heartland should sponsor a yearly conference in the snowiest place on Earth called the David Viner Memorial Snow Con Climate End of Snow Conference. Yes.
Willie Soon:Right. We have checked all of them. We published papers showing them it's all nonsense. I mean, it's just not a not nothing they say is good, especially on snow. I mean, specifically on snow.
Willie Soon:Just no such data to support them. In fact, the counter goes against them, and so they are yeah. I don't know how they're gonna dig themselves out of this big snowstorm. Who knows?
Jim Lakely:Yeah. I with with the description in the story, you know, they had to get a snow cat up there to to get these people out. Or I I immediately thought of Scatman Crothers in the snow cat in the shining when he had to go and rescue. Yeah. Hopefully, nobody got hopefully, nobody entered the hedge maze and the disaster was averted.
Jim Lakely:So alright. Let's move on to our second item here. Sleepy, dopey, or both. This comes from the aforementioned What's Up With That website written by Charles Roder. Climate change is ruining your nap.
Jim Lakely:The stupidest study of the year. Far, it is early. Yo, yes. So here we go.
Willie Soon:Really come close. Yeah, I would say
Jim Lakely:for sure.
Willie Soon:Holy cow, this is a very prestigious place. You would have to pay almost 5 to $10,000 to get this printed actually. I'm just telling you how expensive this science nonsense has become. All right. Well, okay.
Willie Soon:Remember, you are giving intellectual property, but you had to pay to get this published because it's so called open access, right? I mean, it's all our taxpayer funded money.
Anthony Watts:Give you No need for communications has become essentially the tabloid of climate science. It really Yeah.
Jim Lakely:Well, let me let me read some from it. This is a very expensive joke then, Willie, of a study. Very pleasant. Somewhere, probably in a temperature controlled office lit by taxpayer funded fluorescent lights, a gang of climate hysterics decided it was time to sound the next false alarm. Global warming is coming for your dreams.
Jim Lakely:That's right. If the planet warms by a couple of degrees, you won't just sweat a little more. You'll sleep less. And if you sleep less, according to these clowns, you might die. Cue the dramatic music and the UN PowerPoint.
Jim Lakely:This deeply unserious study about Out of China, blessed of course by Nature Communications, a publication that has long since traded rigorous science for progressive activism, makes the mind numbing claim that rising temperatures are causing people to lose sleep. The culprit? Not noisy neighbors, too much screen time or China's brutal urban density. Nope. It's climate change.
Jim Lakely:The all purpose demon invoked every time someone stubs a toe or misplaces their AirPods. The study boasts about analyzing 23,000,000 sleep records from over 214,000 people in China using Huawei smart devices. Because when it comes to objective medical data, nothing says trustworthy like consumer gadgets from a surveillance state. The researchers conclude with a straight face that a 10 degrees Celsius increase in average temperature leads to a twenty point one percent increase in sleep insufficiency and a devastating hold onto your pillow loss of nine point seven minutes of sleep per night. Deep sleep is reduced by
Willie Soon:five
Jim Lakely:eight minutes. Oh, the humanity. So, yeah, I think that I titled this right. It's both sleepy and dopey. This study.
Linnea Lueken:I want to point out that the study author is actually in the chat right now or not the study author, the article author, our good friend, Charles Roder, who writes for What's Up With That and who is very funny.
Willie Soon:Yeah. Congratulations to Charles Rondo. Excellent.
Linnea Lueken:Yeah. Everybody say hello to Charles.
Willie Soon:Yes. Hello, Charles.
Jim Lakely:He wrote the
Willie Soon:hours of sleep a year by 02/1999. Holy cow. Where's where's the the artist formerly known as Prince? Yeah. You know, like
Jim Lakely:If they're having trouble sleeping
Anthony Watts:He's in Finland right now. He's over there doing some super secret thing. I don't know what it is.
Willie Soon:Okay. Well,
Jim Lakely:if these people are having trouble sleeping, they can just, play an Al Gore speech at, at a climate summit, and they'd go right out. No problems.
Willie Soon:Holy cow.
Jim Lakely:Alright. Let's move on to our next item because I know we got a lot to do here with Willie. This is Just Stop Oil, Just Stops. This is from Reuters. UK climate protest group, and we have a lot of viewers and listeners in The UK.
Jim Lakely:Hello, everybody. UK climate protest group Just Stop Oil says it will stop direct action. British climate protest group Just Stop Oil, whose high profile stunts have included throwing soup at a Van Gogh painting and disrupting sporting and theatre events, said on Thursday that it would end its campaign of direct action. The group, which campaigns for Britain to end the extraction of oil and gas by 02/1930 and has become one of the country's best known protest organizations over the last few years, said it would be, quote, hanging up the high vis at the April. In the last few months, its activists have poured liquid latex over a robot at a Tesla store, sprayed orange paint on a section of the US Embassy building in London, and painted over the grave of British naturalist Charles Darwin at London's Westminster Abbey.
Jim Lakely:Previous stunts have included spraying paint on Stonehenge nice job guys while two protesters were jailed for throwing tomato soup on Van Gogh's sunflower paintings in London's National Gallery. Many of his activists have been given long jail terms for their protests and critics have derided their actions, saying the disruptions were pointless and just inconvenienced ordinary people. Yeah, that's all. So it's the end of soup on Van Gogh's, cornstarch on Stonehenge, and slow marching in the streets, just Stout Boyle said in a statement. As corporations and billionaires corrupt political systems across the world, We need a different approach, it said, vowing that it would hold final protest outside of parliament on April 26.
Jim Lakely:Now, guys, maybe start with you here, Willie. I mean, did they did they stop this tactic because it was becoming counterproductive? Some of the my favorite videos on X and other places are fed up to hear Brits dragging these just don't stop oil or just stop oil people off the road so they can get to their job. Or is it because they have now won and it worked? I mean, didn't under this leftist UK government they have now, they're still all in for net zero and didn't they just triple down on that?
Willie Soon:No idea. All I know is that especially many of the videos that I've seen that is very tragic is all these ambulances and all this stuff that people have to bring their wives or to kids or hospital and these people are blocking the road. That's ridiculous. I think I saw one from Portugal that did that. God bless them.
Willie Soon:I mean, these people really need to be in jail. I mean, they need to plant their own food in the jail and then feed themselves. I mean, we're not gonna pay for that food. Your life is just too easy, I guess, to create that kind of nonsense. I mean, stop it, you know?
Willie Soon:It's embarrassing. Somehow, shame is not that. Guilt is not one of these people just creating really delusion, serious delusion. This is really a mental disease. I mean, to be honest, it's a bit sad and somehow I don't know how to help them, Except on I think some very stern kind of things like, yeah, look at this.
Willie Soon:These are the ones that is, that kind of action that is going on. Yeah. Well, you know, part of the No comment from everyone, silence. Yeah, it's it's true. You're just numb.
Willie Soon:I mean, but I think we shouldn't let them keep doing this. I mean, these people, first minute they do this, you put them in jail somehow.
Jim Lakely:Well, the the happy news is that they have gotten long jail sentences over there in The UK, which I was surprised when that started happening. That's gotta have been a factor on on why this is being done. But of course, now you have here Starman in there basically implementing the full climate agenda, so it's a good time for them to stop.
Willie Soon:Yeah, the one that glued themselves and all those things. I mean, come on, why do you want to take out the glue for them, the concrete? Let them stick to that place. Let them figure it out themselves. I'm not going to help them.
Willie Soon:Anyway, too much. Anyway, I think this is another one of those loser, guys.
Jim Lakely:Yep. For sure. Alright. Let's get to our our next item here in the crazy climate news of the week, and that's cherry blossom time. And this comes from our climate realism site.
Jim Lakely:That's climaterealism.com, where we do the counterspin to the alarmist narrative in the mainstream media almost every single day, but every single week. So definitely bookmark ClimateRealism.com and check it out all the time. The headline here is Sorry ABC News. Early cherry blossom bloom is due to urban heat island and not climate change. ABC News ran a story this week reporting on the early bloom of the cherry blossom trees in Washington DC, attributing the early bloom to climate change.
Jim Lakely:This is false. Although the cherry blossom bloom has arrived earlier in recent years, the cause is from the population increase in DC and the development has caused localized heat biases from the urban heat island effect causing fewer late season freezes and higher average nighttime temperatures in the area. The same is true for Tokyo. The reporter in ABC News item, quote, Cherry blossoms blooming earlier due to climate change says that quote, Washington's iconic cherry blossoms are approaching peak bloom, and it's happening earlier due to human amplified climate change. This change, while not catastrophic, is disrupting travel to see the blooms, causing travelers who come to DC to see the bloom annually to have to plan for earlier vacations.
Jim Lakely:Oh my goodness. It may be true that the cherry blossoms are reaching peak bloom days earlier in recent years than they have in past decades, but if so, population growth and the associated UHI effect are to blame, not a modest rise in global average temperatures if you care about that. Tokyo's unbiased average annual temperature has declined since 1997. The impact of the UHI effect there has been to artificially boost the average temperature in Tokyo by 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit over the past century. That is far above the average rise measured for the island nation as a whole.
Jim Lakely:This bias results in earlier spring like conditions, with higher nighttime lows resulting in the earlier bloom. Sterling Burnett not here today, but he wrote this item for us on Climate Report.
Willie Soon:I hope I'm mindful
Anthony Watts:this so I can comment on it.
Willie Soon:Yep. Yep. Sure. Go ahead.
Anthony Watts:Well, you know, it's just a perfect example of how cherry picking is the norm these days for climate science and also for the coverage by the media. In this case, they just completely ignore the idea of UHI, but they also completely ignore the fact that cities produce a lot of particulate matter. You know, there's lots of soot, there's dust, there's, you know, all kinds of small particulates that get stirred up in cities. And it is a well known meteorological fact that have been documented in the bulletin of the American Meteorological Society and other peer reviewed journals that cities create more condensation nuclei. With more condensation nuclei in the air, you get more rain.
Anthony Watts:It's the same principle as cloud seeding. So UHI combined with more particulates, you get more rain in the cities. Climate change has nothing to do with any of this, folks. Right. You know, they just completely ignore that fact because they're on a mission.
Willie Soon:Yeah. Let let me put up on
Jim Lakely:let me before we get more comments here, let me put up on the screen. Not that. There we go. Yeah, this is a chart. This is from the story on ClimateRealism.com.
Jim Lakely:This is a chart of the peak bloom date for cherry trees around Washington, D. C. Tidal basin. You can see that 2024 was the last date it has, and that's over there on the right. That's it's high, but it's or I should say it's earlier March 21, but it's almost exactly the same place it was in 1920.
Jim Lakely:And so this the idea that it's unusual is is crazy. And I might note, I doubt very much that the mainstream media cared a whole lot about when the cherry blossoms bloomed back in like what 2012, '20 '11, '20 '12 when it was on April 10.
Willie Soon:Right. This is why they are very afraid of data, right? You guys are such a such a such a realist that you show data. That's it. That's your problem.
Willie Soon:But anyway, I I don't want to say too much because I can tell you that we have a very, very exciting manuscript that we just submitted. Analyzing the cherry blossom data. You can imagine, and I don't know I want to make sure my colleagues know that I didn't leak anything, but we got some really powerful work that is ongoing in peer review. So if we come out in next six months, you gotta invite some of my friend on. I shouldn't be talking all the time, but it's really beautiful piece of work.
Willie Soon:And it go back to the longest tradition, right, which is in Japan. Cherry blossom. For them is the holy grail, you know? So from Kyoto, we can get data that go back 1,200, eight hundred AD. So this is very interesting.
Willie Soon:And exactly what is causing all those changes? You guess, it's the sun. And then you show the recent time is mostly urban heat island effect, really. So it's a very interesting coincidence that the insight from Sterling Burnett coincide with what we actually come up with scientifically, guess, in actual paper that we are writing. Nice.
Jim Lakely:Yes. Well, yeah, you know, the urban heat island effect is like people just don't talk about it enough. And that's why this show talks about it.
Willie Soon:No, no, no. The argument is as local. But I guess even when we go to the next part, when I talk about sun climate, I just at least mention that. I mean, we prove it's actually on wider averages. So it's a very serious thing.
Willie Soon:It's real. And then everything they say is always, like, not only exaggerated, it's completely the opposite direction. Yeah. They always say urban heat island is small. No.
Willie Soon:And they got rid of No. They haven't done any such thing.
Linnea Lueken:It's very interesting because it's I don't know. You could plan a calendar around the types of articles that come out from the mainstream media with regards to climate change. We at Climate Realism, the website ClimateRealism.com, where we debunk a lot of this stuff as it comes up in the media. So if you guys see a major story floating around, there's a very good chance that we have already covered it with our own, you know, coverage of the actual data. And that's mostly what we do.
Linnea Lueken:They make crazy claims based on model projections. And then we go back and look at the actual measured observable data. And nine times out of 10, it's not even close to what they're reporting. But like I said, you could you could plan like a liturgical calendar around around how the media reports on issues with climate change. So this time of year, it's cherry blossom in Washington, D.
Linnea Lueken:C. Alarm season. A couple of weeks ago, it was the beginning, not the peak, but the beginning of the allergy alarm season for the climate news in a couple of weeks when spring starts further north of us in earnest, we'll get the major hits of all of that. Then this summer, in a couple of weeks here, probably we'll have hurricane alarmism season start. So it's you could you really you could plan a whole calendar around it.
Willie Soon:Yeah. Every year it comes around again. Yeah. Same thing.
Anthony Watts:Yeah. You know, we could we could make a predictive doom calendar, climate doom calendar every year in January predicting what is going to be said by the media and at what times. And I think we would probably hit the mark more often than not with that thing.
Jim Lakely:I think a %. It's it's interesting you use the word the term liturgical calendar, Linea, since, you know, this is a time that cults were talking about, and it's quite a religious movement for them. But that makes a lot of sense. We'll have to think about that, see if we have time to work on that. Alright.
Jim Lakely:Let's get to we have a, I have a meme this week. This was, I guess, well, we'll just call it a meme shared by Anthony Watts with me earlier this week. This this comes from Copenhagen. I know we have viewers in Denmark. It says here that Copenhagen has taken a creative yet powerful step in raising awareness about the future impact of climate change.
Jim Lakely:They've installed high benches around the city that represent the height of the water level expected in February due to rising sea levels. These benches aren't just for sitting they're a visual reminder of the urgent need for climate action. Placed in areas most vulnerable to flooding. They invite us all to reflect on the future of our planet and the importance of working together to protect it. Seems kind of silly to me, but at least you get a better view of what's across the river.
Willie Soon:Well, for those who don't know, that region is actually the Fanderskandia ice sheets during the last glacier maximum. Actually, that place, the land is rising up now. I mean, just sea level is decreasing, it's going down. I mean, at that place, I have my good friend who is a chief geologist of Denmark, Jans Morten Hansen. I mean, he is the guy who actually traveled with the queen of Denmark.
Willie Soon:I mean, he he actually took those kind of measurements around that area. So, oh, forget it, man. This is them, then these people are also very much bought into this It is high of stupidity.
Jim Lakely:That's right. Good. Good. Good joke there, Chris Shattuck in the chat. I got it.
Jim Lakely:I got it. All right.
Willie Soon:Yeah, really good. Yeah.
Jim Lakely:All right. Well, let's let's move on to our main topic. This might be the fastest we've gotten through the crazy climate news of the week.
Willie Soon:Oh, you want to save time for me to perform, right?
Jim Lakely:So gotta save time for Willie. You get more time than most of our guests though. You'll enjoy So, hey, we'll just set it up. You have a slideshow presentation and I know we have a lot of Yeah, question and you guys don't want to for you. Let's roll.
Willie Soon:Sorry. Yeah. Alright, guys. Thank you for having me here. And then Jim asked me to provide some update on sun climate and what my thinking is.
Willie Soon:So again, this is just a brief slideshows. It's just to capture. If you need anything, you come to seres science, c e r e s science dot com. We have plenty of publication. We got news item.
Willie Soon:Of course, we're trying to build our own little YouTube channel. And then our focus obviously is very different caliber from the heartland type. We are interested in science education, not quite in communication because in communication, you cannot use technical science language, this and that, right? Okay, let's move to the next slide. The first main point about science, about sun climate is is very important.
Willie Soon:You can quote in unit of power, which is watt, or even in energy will be in joules. I mean, here, just look at the numbers. These numbers are important. By the way, every time they say the sun cannot cause the earth to to change, you just give them four times 10 to the 26. I think that's easy enough to remember, isn't it?
Willie Soon:And then as to how much the earth actually have is two times 10 to the 17. Even the two times 10 to the 17 is actually converted energy because intrinsically the radiogenic heat, the what you call the radioactive decay energy from the earth core, right? It's only another 10,000 times smaller, two times 10 to the 13 compared to two than 10 to 17 between all the energy, 99.999, I it's all coming from the sun, right? So that's very serious. Don't let them fool you.
Willie Soon:It's not it's just not possible for the sun to not do much. Let's go to the next slide. So, oh, oh, wait, wait, six, go back to that one. This is actually to put in context. You can even put a number into the so called power by CO2 molecules.
Willie Soon:Please read the number. 10 to the minus to the power minus 22. I hope some of you know scientific notation, right? This number is not meant to scare you. It's just to provide you a relative context.
Willie Soon:Right? What is what? I mean, you can have 10 to the 19 cubic CO2 per centimeter. I mean, it's just nothing. Even if you multiply by that, it's still very small amount.
Willie Soon:So there's just no way the CO2 can do anything actually, right? Next. So the most direct, you wanna bear witness to the power of the sun? Take a look at what the sun is happening today, tomorrow. Actually for the past three days, the sun, this one is actually on the left is an image of the sun more or less in x-ray already, two eleven angstrom.
Willie Soon:So that one can sensitive be sensitive to actually temperature from the plasma of the of the sun that is on the order of 2,000,000 degree. The one on the right hand side, by the way, is up to 20,000,000 degree. Okay, this is very serious, what you call corona heating that puzzled solar scientists for a very long time already. But regardless of that, I want you to focus on that black region, which is called corona hole. These are the region in which the magnetic field line, instead like a sunspot, it closed magnetic, it's actually open.
Willie Soon:This field line come all the way towards the earth. That's why they channel this thing called a fast solar wind coming. And that thing is traveling at one to 2,000,000 miles per hour, okay? The category five hurricane is actually 150 miles. This 2,000,000 miles per hour.
Willie Soon:So you can imagine, this thing come real quick. Next, what happened? So there's a direct impact. Of course, there's a big hole, right? Big corona hole.
Willie Soon:We call it corona hole. It's very different from sunspot by the way. So next please. What the trigger effect, you get this beautiful aurora. By the way, this is for Charles Rhodder.
Willie Soon:I didn't know he was in Finland. That's what two days, two nights ago that you get this phenomenon. Next. And then you can For US, Duluth, Minnesota, you can see that too. I'm sure tonight also you will have some events somewhere.
Willie Soon:Next, please. Another one I think I want to show is this one is because to prove to you that the sun impact is not only in one place as like this in Southern Hemisphere. I saw somebody from New Zealand was logging into this this podcast as well. So it's on Dunedin, which is of course the South Island. It's it's it's this is the clear clear saying that, you know, you can't escape the sun because we are bathed inside the sun's sphere basically.
Willie Soon:That's why it's called the heliosphere, right? Now let me just quickly run through the next slide please. This is actually want to mention about how you study sun climate connection. I just, on this part, I want to point to one problem, which is of course the thermometer data, which Anthony Watt is the true expert on this topic. And this is the graph that you see a million times.
Willie Soon:In fact, if not a million, could be more than a hundred million that you have seen this graph. They all look the same. It's go, go, cook, and then warm up to nineteen forty, then 50, and then boom, rise up. I want to remind you that this graph, we mentioned urban heat island effect. Yes, this is not a legitimate graph to study global warming, by the way, because this has nothing to do with anything related to the atmosphere.
Willie Soon:This has something to do with the urban heat island effect. We have already published several paper on this. Anthony himself have published quality of the thermometer data. So next slide, just to prove to you that we can do it. So you look at the orange kind of blurting, there's a lot of curve in there.
Willie Soon:I can tell you it's from England Climatic Research Unit, it's from this group, these two scientists from England, Carlton and Wei, and then Chinese meteorological administration, Berkeley Earth, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Study, the NOAA. And then the black curve is actually what we can do. We already published that many years ago. What does this say? This actually say that, yeah, you can do that, I can do it.
Willie Soon:So it's called replication in science. But the only way we get this curve is what? You have to include the urban station that is contaminated by urban heat. And in fact, that's what I'm trying to tell you. So to study actually climate change in the, what you call studying the different causal factor instead of just concrete and all this other stuff, you really need to remove this urban station, okay?
Willie Soon:That you need to remove this. The oils, you cannot study this, okay? That's basically, you can read all about it and come to series.sign, C E R E S sign Com to get the details paper and explanation. If I may say, we published a layman summary for this, for the heritage foundation, I think two, three months ago. So you can also find that report, which is coach in more access language, more easy to access language.
Willie Soon:So please read them or tell more people about this. Don't buy into the IPCC nonsense. So next, please. Yeah, that's just to show you that, yeah, we can do all of that, right? It's called replication.
Willie Soon:I think the next slide, I don't remember what is the next slide. Oh, therefore I want to show this. Yes, I like this quote very much. It's from John Clauser, which is a friend of ours. He said that the IPCC is one of the worst sources of dangerous misinformation.
Willie Soon:It's not only misinformation, it's dangerous misinformation. And John Clauser, please next slide, just to show who he is. He's actually the Nobel Prize Laureate in physics, right? I mean, he is the guy who actually, I would say, politically, I'm sure he's leaning on the left, a bit liberal and this and that, but he believed in science. Those whoever that think that science is valuable, I don't think you can escape the conclusion that IPCC is indeed very manipulative.
Willie Soon:It's not about science. It's always anti science and it's causing the world a lot of problem, I think. Even all us an apology in the future if we actually would be able to bring them down to some justice, some sense of, you know, confession that they are wrong, things like that. But IPCC, I kind of give up on them, you know, they just gonna keep doing what they're doing because they are mandated to do this, right? To manipulate the information, but they are definitely not a place to look for signs.
Willie Soon:If you want signs, you come to Heartland Institute, you go to Anthony Ward's page, or you come to series.sign.com, right? Even Heritage Foundation has some good signs in that sense. Next, please. Now I want to quickly jump over this graph that I think maybe not often see even the next click this just to show you the range of the temperature. If you plot the monthly temperature data of The US average temperature, you will see that the average temperature is run very large amplitude.
Willie Soon:45 degree of a seasonal amplitude range. This is the whole US. And let's go next. I just want to summarize for you. If you put that in season, you do it every year.
Willie Soon:This one, you take the 2020 to 2024 data. Indeed, it's 45 degree Fahrenheit or 25 degree Celsius. Let me show you then how much the actually sunlight is coming in on the seasonal sense. Next. You'll see it's of the order.
Willie Soon:This is the same contaminants US, it's of the order from winter to summer. Of course, you can see time of the year, right, on the horizontal axis. Somewhere middle middle hundred and eighty, that'll be in June, right? So from winter to summer is on the order of twenty and twenty ten watt per meter square. I wonder if how many of you realize that if you take this and then you try to quantify this thing called the climate sensitivity, what do you think you will get?
Willie Soon:Have a look. Click next, please. Yeah. Show the next slide. So to show you, if you put the number together, you overlap them, it implies of the order of one degree for doubling co two.
Willie Soon:This is telling you that this is very powerful. Instead of model from the data itself, you already can see that any climate model from IPCC that promotes three degree, four degree or whatever, or even two degree is already over a % or exaggerated. Okay? It's just from number like this. If you wanna live in the real world, I think we will have better stick to some of this number.
Willie Soon:Okay? Next, please. Okay. If I go a little too fast, you guys can have have the slide obviously. Right?
Willie Soon:This is just an example to show you. If I were to do that in terms of the temperature changes, and then you plot the What your best estimate of the sun output. This is basically trying to revisit some of the old issue for those who are not familiar. Remember I told you that if you just take the rural station, you will see, you will not be able to see this high warming trend at the tail end of it, right? And this shows you that indeed there are some plausible and possible connection between the sun and the climate in US, right?
Willie Soon:So I think I'm almost there, but I just show you that some update. These are results that are already published in 2021. So I don't want to embarrass myself giving you all result, but this is not all, this result is not gonna change by the way. There's just nothing wrong with this. So that's the point.
Willie Soon:And all result doesn't mean it's not good. It's actually very valid result. We published in about three papers actually explaining in details. Can really, really have any crack at it to see what's wrong with this. There's nothing wrong with these things.
Willie Soon:Okay, we are working very hard, of course, to try to quantify now how much what we call the urban heat island effect and all these other factors Anthony Ward would be able to tell you all about it, right? You know, the sighting effects and the time of day of observation. We're working very hard. Anthony, we got delayed, but we're gonna produce that paper that we promised to work with you on this topic. So my goal in life is actually to produce what you call peer review publication, right?
Willie Soon:To really provide this so that we can be on equal stand with IPCC or any one of those guys, right? From Noah Wa, from NASA, so that they cannot, quote unquote, ignore us because we publish in the same place that they do, right? So this is why I think that working on science very seriously, very carefully, you know, of course, there's a lot of work than to just chitchat, right? I mean, produce much more important, what do you call, benchmark for them to really chase after us instead of us constantly chasing after their headline and all this stupid thing from the snow thing and to the sleeping, you know, caused by the global warming or even the cherry blossom thing. It's all basically big lies in that sense.
Willie Soon:Alright. Next, I think we just skip to this new paper that I was able to catch since you asked me to update some. I just provide two papers that just recently been published. Okay. Let's show the first one.
Willie Soon:The first one, I think, is just published about a week ago or thirteen days, two weeks now. This is based on a cave in Vietnam, I think Northwestern Vietnam, where they collect, they go inside, they got this paleotherm, this staglerite, right, to try to cut them off because this staglerite form layers because of precipitation drip, so they actually have annual resolution. And this is very interesting. This shows indeed that there is strong evidence of how even the Asian monsoon, which is the rainfall season, right? Monsoon is basically the land sea contrast, right?
Willie Soon:Of the rain. And and the way the sun works is actually very simple. It's always the same thing. Like the curve that you saw the sun connecting with the earth US temperature. Guess what?
Willie Soon:The simplest solution is that just a simple evaporation from the ground or from the ocean. I mean, I can show those kind of sample graph, but idea here is basically that this thing is also able to moderate regional climate mode, like monsoon system. Monsoon system is operating not on a global scale, it's more on the land sea contrast. We have a North American monsoon, which is Mexico, know, the Southern East, Southwest of US, and then you have this South Asian, which is India, you know, and Indochina area, right? Monsoon intensity.
Willie Soon:I mean, the proof is basically they study the data record because they have annual resolution. So they were able to find a lot of this, what you call solar fingerprint, because the solar activity does changes in some very interesting way beside the eleven years famous sunspot cycle. It has that one hundred and eighty year cycle and things like that. You can actually show. Next slide, please.
Willie Soon:Just to put through. You can read all you want about this. Of course, I'll give you the slide and Harlan should put it up. That actually there are correspondence. The compile TT is the one that from this staculamide data sets, and then you have the beryllium 10, which is a measure of solar activity.
Willie Soon:You will see some similarity in some of these periods, right, that they've been detected in the record. And this is actually not even the most recent period. This is during the glacial time. I think I they cover like thirty thirty thousand years ago to some, I forget what year. Yeah.
Willie Soon:You can see roughly the time period. But anyway, let's go to the next graph. The next graph is telling the same story. Here is on a even finer meteorological scale actually. Talking about how how you can find solar fingerprint in a lot of this, what you call paleo data, right?
Willie Soon:This one is from a carbon accumulation rate in Peatland. In actually Northeast, I think very near North of Korea. Northeast Asia, yeah, it's actually one of the place where you have this big region where you drill the core and then you can actually date the the the age of the core and then each of the layers and then you're actually trying to study what does it do. This is the kind of study that I think is useful. And the data is a lot, of course.
Willie Soon:This is just sample of two recent papers. I mean, over my lifetime, I'm quite sure that I have accumulated more than a few thousands of such work, right? I mean, some days I'm still hoping to put it all together to to write this major super duper report. We already wrote a few to try to explain you that it is not one evidence like the IPCC insisting carbon causing global warming, carbon dioxide. We are gonna show you that this is massive evidence all over the way.
Willie Soon:Because of course, not some, not all places will show this. It's just the place happen to be conducive to be able to produce a signal. It's that's also very key fact that we need to know. Because there are meteorological factors. There are some local regional factor.
Willie Soon:There are some geological feature that's gonna cause you from not seeing the signal. But not seeing the signal, not say doesn't mean that the actual physics, actual physical connection doesn't exist. Whereas we find so many, like I said, thousands and thousands of those kind of this kind of empirical evidence. This is this is part of the problem with with basic science obviously because we have a lot of problem to try to fully explain everything. But as far as I'm concerned, after some By the way, this is my thirty fifth years of doing this kind of work as a professional.
Willie Soon:I'm still a professional even though I'm out of Harvard University, but I've been out since 2022, but I am very happy now because I'm free from the slavery system. Thank God. But in any case, I think that's enough for now. Yeah, this this this paper you can read in my slide. They also show, of course, all this solar fingerprint they show.
Willie Soon:By the way, actually show this, show this, show this. I want to show because there's another very interesting timescale that is not often talked about. Because the sun is not only changing on eleven years or even hundreds of years, there's a very well known period that is actually a thousand year. They known it as a eddy solar oscillation, named after a solar astronomer name. The next slide, it has a thousand years.
Willie Soon:I think this one detected a thousand year cycles in quite a few of these data sets, right? So that shows you the 200 is very well known, similar to the one hundred and eighty. And then the 88 is well known, it's called Glybur's cycle. The two two hundred one is called the DeVries cycle, and then the 1,001 called the Eddy cycle. So these are all well known in terms of the solar literature.
Willie Soon:And of course, you can really do all you want. Science is always never the final conclusion. There's always open ended. But we have learned so much now. I would say that we are fairly fairly confident that this is something that IPCC will continue to ignore.
Willie Soon:And we will continue to put it out because it is the truth and the whole truth. And if anybody can point out that we're wrong, we're more than happy to correct ourselves. This is the kind of work that I think, because we're not here to just hit and run, right? Just like many of these bad people and even bad scientists are doing that. Because apparently these people are not so serious about science.
Willie Soon:So I think by now you'll be fine for me to stop. And then if I guess I'm more than happy to answer any question at all. Thank you.
Jim Lakely:All right. So, most
Anthony Watts:important thing that you presented is the graph that shows the TSI versus the rural temperature dataset.
Willie Soon:Yeah. Maybe
Anthony Watts:Andy can do That is that's gold as far as I'm concerned. Sunspot cycles, every time we we analyze those on WhatsApp with them, they don't really come together with a solid answer. We get all kinds of, you know, all across the board answers about the solar cycles. But the TSI versus the temperature, that is important. That right there is, you know, now someone might say, well, correlation is not causation.
Anthony Watts:But I don't know, what your, your correlation number is on this, but it looked pretty good to me just by my, mark six eyeball right here. So I I think this is the thing that really needs to be pushed about solar to the exclusion of some of these other things like solar cycles because solar cycles and temperature don't always match up. Yes, there's differences in THI but TSI but this is really the thing that that's that gives
Willie Soon:No, no, thank you for your comment, Anthony. You, it's valid. All your, these are the thing that I can say that, of course, it cross our mind. We study this very carefully. In fact, we're not only showing it for US, right?
Willie Soon:We can show it for many other regions, you know? We can show for the Arctic Arctic. Even Arctic is very hard to get rid of some of this non climatic factor because it's not all clean, even though you see that there's no population in Arctic region. Just another project that we are diving into, but it's a it's the hard part is of course, gaining those, what you call the meta state history station data. For for European station, I'm happy to report to Anthony.
Willie Soon:We we got 800 of those station history. So, kind of we're in in good shape to try to study some of those for the European record, right? I like to touch Australia but you know, those guys are all cleaning up and nobody know where the meta station history is. That sort of problem, yeah. Well, we'll keep trying because this is the way actually to get closer to the truth.
Willie Soon:I totally agree with your comment. It's completely valid because, for example, on the eleven year cycle, I can tell you, it's a bit like this. The earth is a very strange kind of filter, okay? It does filter things out. For the fast transient, it's very hard to detect them.
Willie Soon:But if you actually are able to, let's say record things in the troposphere or stratosphere, the eleven year signal is there actually, the sunspot type is there. It's just that when you come down near to the surface, things sort of disappear. So they turn into instead of high pass filter, people who know this electronic thing become a low pass filter. So the the effect of those longer term like the the multi decade old thing shows up much more clearly. In fact, in rainfall record, you can kind of see something.
Willie Soon:You're right. I don't wanna get into this. I know Willie Sachem Bach, some of your good people. Absolutely top notch kind of thinker who actually kind of very skeptical, and I I am also skeptical. Same way, I think the same like you.
Willie Soon:But but I think that it's hard to escape the conclusion when you think it from the big picture. This is why I start with the with the picture of the energetic constraint. Because you have to remember there's no other sources of energy around. So the rest is like a little puzzle searching for all these details. And then plus that weather and climate operates on such a different spatial and time scale that is you gotta be much more careful about that.
Willie Soon:Yes, we, you, the most important thing that you can also show actually a lot of this solar activity, kind of solar irradiance type can affect a lot of this mode, this different what you call large scale operation mode. It's hard to show for ENSO, but you can show for the AMO, for example, right? You can show that a published paper on that explaining the relationship with the Arctic temperature and the hydrology, things like that. So, yes, a lot more work to be done.
Anthony Watts:I I have a question. Andy, if you can bring that graph back up in the split screen. So, we all know why the temperature series doesn't go prior to 1980 because it just wasn't anything. Right. Until the weather bureau formed, you know, the cooperative observer network and that spread around the world.
Anthony Watts:But what about the TSI from 1800 to 1880? How did that get measured or is that some kind of an estimate or a proxy?
Willie Soon:It is an expert proxy, yes. I can tell you that we recently, I just hope that maybe we invite my colleague, come out, Ronan Connelly, he's also a pretty good guy, And we just produce a paper that resolve this satellite part. That I can tell you that they keep in fact, they always have paper that only say that the distant satellite going down. We show that not so. This is a huge breakthrough because the whole solar physics community are stuck.
Willie Soon:They refuse to work on the problem properly. We work on it properly. Therefore, we come out with the best what you call long lasting results. That I hope that some of them will start looking into this or else the problem gonna persist for another fifty years. I'm very sorry.
Willie Soon:But we publish now to say this. And it's the pain is that I have to find $5,000 to pay for these damn papers. Okay? It's a very painful thing that these people are taking the Don't
Anthony Watts:you get don't you get millions from big oil? That should be chomping.
Willie Soon:I live in my one of my smaller house. One of my very smaller house that, you know, just for me to drink beer. Anyway, well, let's not get told this, but there's a lot to do. I'm just saying that step by step, signs you have to tackle also the problem, not all at the same time with taking a chunk. But we actually, I felt very proud.
Willie Soon:This published was probably around December of twenty twenty four of Astrophysical Journal. I mean, it's expensive place to publish. But it's a good place because it's a place where everybody, serious people on on solar physics ought to pay attention to this. So I'm very proud. Come to series-sign, C E R E S sign Com, you will find the paper under publication by Connolly Soon et al in astrophysical journal.
Willie Soon:I think that paper is kind of not yet been discussed. We haven't been also going around. We are busy working on the cherry blossom. We are working on so many other problem. So, so we we are very, very, what you call hard at work?
Willie Soon:Put it this way. And I hope more people will make aware of this paper, of course, of all our works, and then, in fact, it's not just one work, it's every work. I mean if you like, I mean we even work on COVID-nineteen, right? Things like that so. All
Jim Lakely:right. Well thank you very much Willie. Put a link to a PDF version.
Willie Soon:Yeah, I'm just let them have to
Jim Lakely:start your presentation in the in the chat. And I've actually, as you were finishing up there, amended the description of this video. First time I've ever done that in the middle of a stream. And so I think there's a hyperlink that's working. You could just click on it to where you can get it from the Heartland website.
Jim Lakely:So anybody in the chat, if you want to test those test out my attempt to give it to you live, let us know how it went, that'd be great. But we do have a lot of questions for you, Willie. So I'm just going to hand this over to Linea. Take it away.
Linnea Lueken:Absolutely. Okay, thank you very much to everybody who has submitted questions. There are a lot of them to get through. So I'm going to read out the questions for our audio only listeners so they can get the benefit of understanding what the what the full context is that we're responding to here. So we're we are going to start with this one that is simple.
Linnea Lueken:I think Doctor. Soon, you'll be able to respond to it very easily. And that's from Marcia who says, what causes variations in TSI?
Willie Soon:Ah, okay. It's solar magnetism. You know, the sun is basically a fluid that is plasma because which mean which mean the atom would not be able to remain as an atom. So it's a neutral, so there's an electron being stripped. For example, the corona picture that I showed, the the iron atom is being stripped about 23.
Willie Soon:There are 56 electron outside the iron. It's been stripped, so they become charged. So it's magnetism. So when you have a flow, so immediately you you you have electricity and magnetism. It's the magnetism.
Willie Soon:Because the magnetism can produce dark region and bright region. So you see the net broad, it's basically the battle within the dark and the bright region, right? And then the dark region is operating on hundred thousand kilometers or 10,000 kilometers scale. And then the small one goes down as small as we can measure them down to meters. I'm sorry if you know number.
Willie Soon:Therefore, it's very difficult to do the bright one, but in the net is the is the bright region when the sun is more active, the bright region win over the dark region. So it get net bright. Okay? When you have more active, the sun is brighter. Okay?
Willie Soon:And then of course, associated phenomenon will be the flare, the corona mass ejection, so on and so forth that produce you to actually this famous Aurora, right? So I think that's about, there's a lot more details, but basically the simple answer is solar magnetism, yeah.
Linnea Lueken:Okay, awesome. All right. So this is one that this is for Doctor. Soon, but I think Anthony would probably be able to weigh in on this as well. But Ted Clark asks, is the modern warm period ending about now, followed by another little ice age corresponding to the grand solar minimum of two thousand and thirty.
Anthony Watts:What grand solar minimum of two thousand thirty? It hasn't happened yet.
Willie Soon:Yeah. These are because of literature that people want to rush. Yeah, yeah. Prediction of future is always very dangerous, and they already put a label and it's not right. I believe that it come from the work of Zakova, but by the way, I myself have made some of that forecast, but I'm much more cautious than that.
Willie Soon:Because first of all, there's a very famous meteorologist by the name of Andrea Monin from Russia. He's a Russian academician obviously. He said to to believe in sun sun climate connection is big trouble because you not only have to know about the climate, you have to know what the sun is doing, right? You have to predict the sun in the future. And that's a very And then not only that, you have to figure out the connection has to work.
Willie Soon:So it's a long story. And I would say that we just have to keep learning. We don't have enough adequate knowledge, by the way. The problem is the missing link of what is weather, what is climate, I think. That become a very difficult problem that I think it would take a while to figure this out.
Willie Soon:So at best we can do is actually to keep updating our knowledge. And for now there's no major understanding that can make me convinced that this is actually the true answer. So a lot of people are tending to rush to conclusion. So I don't totally agree with them. I think you have to approach much more carefully.
Willie Soon:That's it. Thank you.
Linnea Lueken:Okay. Thank you. And and that related to that would be a question from one of our very frequent viewers, Albert. I don't think I've seen him miss a show. So we really appreciate you, Albert.
Linnea Lueken:And he says, do you know about Zarkovas work, which you do? And do you agree with?
Willie Soon:Her? Short answer is no. And no about agreeing with her. Absolutely not. And then about knowing her work, I got very, very bored after after repeated.
Willie Soon:I mean, are the I I I don't know anybody know about her or not. She's very aggressive. These people who she would even attack you if you don't sign her paper in your own paper where you don't depend on her. So put it this way. That is not a very nice thing to do.
Willie Soon:I can tell you my bad experience. I would might as well just say, she has actually even written to a journal editor one time to tell me to retract my paper or have to have to cite her paper. That's a very nice try. I say no, Because I didn't depend on any of your work. I mean
Anthony Watts:Yeah.
Willie Soon:If I'm gonna have to depend on her, I mean, that's a bit aggressive. I mean, these are the people. I have, I want to let it be known. I, but I don't want to answer to all of this nonsense. It's a bit bad, you know?
Willie Soon:I don't behave like that to anybody. You don't do work like that. And plus that always, there's a lot of huge misconceptions. She apparently is trying to say that the sun and the earth is like a billet ball. I mean, he say that she actually is trying to say that the earth can move closer to the sun so easily because of planets.
Willie Soon:I mean, she doesn't do any of this orbital planetary calculation, which I did with some of my colleague by the name of Gustavo Sianso from Argentina. We are the one that produced the first solution, the correct solution to all of that for the last ten thousand years. There are other problem, much harder problem. But we solve that problem. And we are I think everybody should use our data.
Willie Soon:Because remember, the assigned earth is not a billboard. They coevolve to gravitational potential. They just move together. There's no there's no possibility for the sun suddenly have extra input to the sun because the sun and earth the the sun actually move in the inertial plane. The sun actually is not stable.
Willie Soon:It's not in a center place. Actually moving around. It's called center of mass. But when the sun move this way, the earth move this way. When the sun move that way, we move this way.
Willie Soon:We are, the relative distance doesn't get adjusted so easily. We can prove beyond doubt actually. You just have to take all this current and filament. If we have that kind of problem, we would be lost long time ago. No satellite will be put up there.
Willie Soon:Believe me. So, there's a lot of issue, but I'm just saying technically, this is not a very interesting area to pursue. So therefore, I no longer want to study that kind of issue. Of course, she's very popular. She will have thousands and thousands and thousands of view, but I also have 6,000,000 view, I can tell you, on Tucker Carlson show.
Willie Soon:Thank you. So science is important. Please follow the science, not any human being or somebody's claim who actually absolutely cannot be verified.
Linnea Lueken:All right. So I'm going to give Doctor. Soon a break here for a second and pitch a question to Anthony, which comes from our friend here, Jeff Boy RD, who says, with climate change, which I think no one denies as the climate is constantly changing, what do the alarmists say is the normal temperature we're trying to achieve, and how is it determined?
Anthony Watts:Well, I think it was determined much in the same way that the most important number from the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy was determined, 42. It was just pulled out of thin air. Seriously, I mean, what is the Goldilocks temperature? Right? I mean, I would say, you know, we're living in the Goldilocks zone now.
Anthony Watts:We are thriving as humans. We have so much productivity, agricultural productivity, and industrial productivity that did not happen and got suppressed when temperatures were colder. So honestly, you know, I don't know what the exact perfect temperature of the Earth is or is supposed to be and neither do they. But I think we're doing pretty good right now with the temperature that we have that is slightly elevated over what it was a hundred years ago. And every time we go back in history and look at this, like in the Roman warm period, the medieval warm period, and so forth and so on, elevated temperatures promote humanity, colder temperatures suppress humanity.
Anthony Watts:So I'll leave it at that.
Willie Soon:Well, don't forget you can make more wine and beer.
Anthony Watts:That's true.
Willie Soon:That's very, very true. It's very necessary.
Jim Lakely:Absolutely. Pleasure of living. Right?
Linnea Lueken:Here's a question from my friend Chris, who has to get up very early because I believe he's in New Zealand or South Africa to watch this show. So he says, are we affected much by the stuff we fly through in the galaxy? Would any effects only occur over very long time scales?
Willie Soon:Is this
Linnea Lueken:a dumb question?
Willie Soon:No. It's not a dumb question. It's it's a bit like how Valentina Zagoba misunderstand how the the earth motion through the solar system, right? Even within the solar system. This one, it's a very long answer.
Willie Soon:I'm gonna give a very short answer. Look up spiral density wave. We don't fly through the galaxy. It's really a very interesting phenomenon of masses through the, what you call the galactic rotation. There's no reason for a galaxy to rotate by itself, isn't it?
Willie Soon:It should just sit still, why would it rotate, right? So that kind of thing, it's angular momentum obviously, so there's a lot of factors involved. But the problem in that kind of galaxy dynamics is related to things that we don't see, which is the dark matter. That's another physics problem. But long ago, we kind of roughly understand that you've got to look through this.
Willie Soon:The motion is complicated. Remember, it's not a billet ball. That's another thing. Please, it's not mechanic billet ball. It's much more complicated.
Willie Soon:It's group behavior, things like that. So look out spiral density wave. We wanna understand our motion through the galaxy. So it's a very interesting thing. Wikipedia answer is adequate, I would say.
Willie Soon:So study that and that's a very good hint.
Linnea Lueken:Man I had a gym moment darn it. Okay so question and Jim had a gym moment.
Jim Lakely:I had a gym moment.
Linnea Lueken:Right. Kite Man Music asks, does Venus have a runaway greenhouse atmosphere due to a lot of carbon dioxide?
Willie Soon:You can flip it around. It has a lot of carbon dioxide because it's hot. I don't know. It's a it's the problem is that the evolution of the planets need require some serious understanding. I I that's I'll put it at that.
Willie Soon:Yeah. It's really yeah. Yeah. You can you can use Mars as an example too because Mars has very high concentration of carbon dioxide too, right? But Mars is cold.
Willie Soon:Why? It's because of the distance from the sun. This is the fake notion that has been introduced by people like Jim Hansen and bunch of this. I don't know. They are not very good scientists.
Willie Soon:Put it this way. It's very confusing when you hear from them with director title, with professor title, with so many of this title and gold medal and Nobel prizes, this and that. It's so confusing when you hear from all these kind of people. It just get even more confusing if you cannot think for yourself. So, I would encourage everybody think for yourself.
Willie Soon:I can say that please come to seriesdesign.com. I think we have some minimal standard. I mean, we may not know everything, but we know something. And we are much more careful than spilling answer to things that cannot be answered so easily. So let's be careful, that's all.
Linnea Lueken:All right. This is a question from Kevin Burke, who says I do solar photography, so I'm interested in the sun. When looking for TSI record, have you seen evidence of Mega Carrington events every thousand years or so?
Willie Soon:Mega Carrington, too many things at the same time. Of course, H alpha is good because H alpha is a very nice filter that is in the visible wavelength, I would say because that filter has been invented long ago, about 6,000 some angstrom. Because that's where you can see the chromospheric layer and then you can see a lot of this motion where the spots beginning to merge together to create these things called solar flare. By the way, today I was working on a the longest solar flare record that we have from instrument with my colleague, Ronan Connolly, and my Mexico colleagues, Victor Velasco. We clearly wanted to understand that, but the only way to get those information, I would say, would be through what you call observation of a sun like stars.
Willie Soon:The European Space Agency project called Kepler has already died of course, the satellite, but we have already recorded quite a lot of stars. I would say close to a few hundred thousand stars of sunlight star. And then we have a statistical record of over five years or five years of record. And in a time that is enough to catch solar flares, a flare event, which mean within minutes. So that's a lot of data and the Japanese group has already produced a lot of interesting evidence to say that there are mega flares, no doubt about it.
Willie Soon:That bigger than what we have observed on the sun. I would say 10,000 times even bigger, the 10 to the 35 ergs kind of thing. So it's bigger. We do able to see, which means the sun can have much bigger flare flaring event actually. So things like that.
Willie Soon:And a thousand year kind of cycle, the best confirmed thing is basically through a lot of this, what you call, cosmogenic isotope, right? Carbon 14 data and beryllium 10, and then it's possible through titanium 44 through meteorites, and then you can also do it through another useful one that I find it useful is actually nitrate in ice core. We've been able to show that it can give you information on the two hundred year cycle, the eighty eight year cycle, things like that. And the thousand one, no one is able to get such a long record yet. So to get a thousand years, you need ten thousand years of data, actually, right, at least to see something like that.
Willie Soon:Yeah. It's it's evidence is is there. It's evidence is there, I would say. Yeah. For the for the ADDI cycle, the thousand year one.
Willie Soon:Like, it just show in one of that work, right, that just produced. Yeah. They're able to see a thousand year cycle. Those are quite long data, so they can say something like that. It's quite good.
Linnea Lueken:Yeah. Like our our commenter John Z says no one knows what the Carrington of no one knew what the Carrington event was until we had wires. How is anybody going to track that?
Willie Soon:And Carrington was was interesting. September 1859. It was accidental. It's about 09:10 o'clock in the morning. If he were to not regularly collecting sunspot data, he would not see it.
Willie Soon:But the fun part about Richard Carrington is, of course, he own a brewery for beers. He he went out. He have a small little telescope. He went and do this. And then he just happened to see this bright thing.
Willie Soon:And then along somewhere in Scotland, there's somebody by the name of Richard Hodgson. He also saw that simultaneously. So it's good. But in history, there's also one time, I think in 1715 or 1716 by a guy, he he that guy do a cloth cloth coloring thing. He also saw white light flares actually.
Willie Soon:That was another very well recorded, very interesting eyewitness kind of thing. Yes. Yes. Detecting solar flare is tough, I tell you. Of course, the 1859 is famous because we have already by then telegraph.
Willie Soon:We have really direct documentation of that effects impact on the on the ground. No doubt about it. So it's a very beautiful thing. In fact, we are working on that today. Trying to talk about solar flare of all times and I can report to you.
Willie Soon:We can confirm that the May 2024 flare event that we have, pretty big, dude. That's a big event. That one just happened. That's why I want to start with the the corona hole to show you but corona had nothing to do with flare but the sun is a magnetized body that have, I don't know. You know, you you saw the Hindu god that have multiple hands.
Willie Soon:I mean, these are the one that have many many more hands. Does so many more things. And you gotta think in terms of wavelengths and and you know, energetics, of course, the sun is just had that free energy basically. Well, maybe not all gravity. You have nuclear from the inside and then the magnetism, all the motion and the because the temperature is high, so it's very energetic kind of bodies.
Willie Soon:Yeah, a lot more to do. No one knows all about the sun. Believe me. It's very hard. I can put a plug.
Willie Soon:Someday you guys should watch a movie by me because I I'm very proud. You know what I wanna say? Let me say. Let me say. For a long time, I've been studying sunspot.
Willie Soon:I haven't published a paper until, 2021. So for thirty years, I didn't publish. I published that paper because I think my paper is important. Then, ever since then, I've been chasing one thing called what can I find the first sunspot drawing from colonial America? I'm a naturalized citizen of America.
Willie Soon:And it took a long time, and I've been many people tell me the best Sunspot scholar tell me that, no, it cannot be found. It's already disappeared. About 2022, I got lucky. Hit the jackpot. I found it.
Willie Soon:Alright? So we're gonna tell that story. Maybe somebody should make a movie because it's quite interesting. You know, what this picture is about. Ah, come on, you know, for America's sake, we gotta know this.
Willie Soon:You know, because after a long loss, many scholars say it's loss. It's not possible. Don't even look, right? Do I look like somebody's gonna give up? No, sir.
Willie Soon:I was so happy. In fact, the first thing I tell was my two sons. Boys, come on. Those guy named Benjamin and Franklin. Okay?
Willie Soon:Come on, boys. Let's check this. Put it on your name. It was fun. That one is good.
Willie Soon:I I try to encourage a filmmaker like Martin Durkin, my friend that did Gorilla sign. Please, I wanna put put a plug for them too. These are all good friend who did climate, the movies. We all work very hard because we don't believe in the nonsense that these people are creating. I mean, this is actually beyond our self already.
Willie Soon:It's about the future generation and this like that. How can you live in a world with with anti science all the time, right? So, it it it's just not good. We have too many anti science element. Never mind about free market, which is hot and think tank, which I agree with.
Willie Soon:Free market ideas, it's a very good thing. But people can argue, of course, communist, we're not like that. But too bad for communist. We're not we're not in a communist state yeah. Anyway.
Willie Soon:I I say science. Free science work. Science need to be free. Science is not free at all. It's completely captured by by all these technological elites and all these different tools that they're trying to confuse you with.
Willie Soon:If I may put another plug to last week, we just published a paper using Grok three beta writing the paper all by himself. I didn't do anything. We just keep talking to Grok three and make him write a paper. All we did was to improve on the kind of weaknesses in Groktree system right now, at least in beta state. That I think this is significant just to prove a point that remember, this system now are fairly intelligent.
Willie Soon:This system have These are IQ of 400. You all know about IQ system, right? 100 is the median, 15 is one standard deviation. So you add another 15. So no one can even reach IQ of 200, put it this way.
Willie Soon:So people who talk about IQ of 200 is ridiculous. It's not possible. Right? This kind of system has IQ of minimum of 400 or more. So, very smart.
Willie Soon:No one can beat them in chess. No one can beat them in any of this normal game now. No one can read 10,000 papers. Not in hundred years, days, weeks, quickly. Okay?
Willie Soon:Hundred thousand. So, it can synthesize things so quick. So we produce this thing in a proper way. Taking advantage of how this smart system can do. They can know and connect 10,000 papers at the same time, right?
Willie Soon:And then put it together to give you a synthesis, a summary, right? So, and you have to know how to use this system. This system is pretty much corrupted, right? So my good friend Jonathan Kola, his name should be mentioned because he was the driver behind this because he's a geek. He's a computer scientist.
Willie Soon:He's a Harvard Physics graduate. He's also a clarinetist. So we're constantly having fun by the way. So that paper, I think should people should think about it and then look into this because this also, for me, it prove a very important point. This open system, actually, if you allow it to be free, if you don't capture it using all this, what they call alignment, then you know, it's actually able to give you a very fair and open discussion, open summary.
Willie Soon:And I think it really gonna put IPCC. IPCC is completely not necessary now. I mean, they are gone. I mean, I don't know. I still wish that they can be disabandoned, but I think they are not gonna go away.
Willie Soon:They're gonna find way to keep going, keep telling the lies, but I think the sooner we can forget about IPCC, the better we will be. I mean, hopefully, we can have that power to resist IPCC because they are trying to capture you by saying that everybody is saying IPCC is true, but IPCC is not even true. I mean, it's not even wrong. Put it this way.
Anthony Watts:Well, the good news is is that Trump, by withdrawing from the IPCC, has pretty much nullified it, at least for The United States Of America. So, you know, the next time they publish something, I think it will be pretty randomly ignored except by the highly alarmist media such as, you know, The Guardian or, you know, The Washington Post.
Willie Soon:Hey. Yeah. But, my point is also that, yes, I totally appreciate that. I love that very much. I'm a Trump guy myself.
Willie Soon:But, you know, we don't want things to be temporary. We want it to be long lasting. Science ought to be free, free, free. That's it. Because society should demand this.
Willie Soon:You don't want your kid to be taught by Michael Mann. Put it this way. I am not confident at all that too many people will benefit from taking a class from him. I will openly say that. That's why my kid would never go to UPenn.
Willie Soon:No way. Even if you give them food to eat and everything, hell no. Run away from people like that because this is not useful. You're gonna ruin yourself in the process no matter how much the prestige is.
Linnea Lueken:All right. I've got this question from someone who is new to this channel who says, why do we not challenge the science of carbon dioxide to include its full effect in the atmosphere to include under clouds? Whoever wants to take that. I'm not quite sure what's being asked here. Correct.
Anthony Watts:I don't either. I have no idea what that question means.
Willie Soon:No. No. It it it's it's actually the people have attempted. People have attempted very detailed calculation. Right?
Willie Soon:The the most insane and very very detailed calculation is the one by professor William Harper and his colleague William Van Vingarden from I think he's from York University in Canada. And they have looked into this question. But tackling that together with cloud, it's a very difficult, I would say unresolved problem, but they actually make already first few attempt. There are some interesting result coming out from them, but I think that area is also not so interesting, not so fruitful. I would rather study how the irradiance can modulate the the cloud field, you know, from evaporation, separate from what the people call about the Schwannzmark effect from cosmic ray.
Willie Soon:I'm less enthusiastic about that factor, but that's another open discussion that everybody should discuss. Yeah. My view is on Schwannzmark is that, yeah, he he have worked very, very hard, but I I think that one has to understand. Cloud is a very strange beast. In my humble opinion, cloud by the way, I I already found evidence.
Willie Soon:By the way, I I need empirical evidence because we don't have enough brain. Our theory is not powerful enough to to handle cloud in a very comprehensive way. Cloud may be known as what you call a forcing in the short term like minutes to to days and all that. Because every time you have a cloud, the lower anything below that will be cool, right? Especially low cloud, it will reflect sunlight, so for it's cool to local region.
Willie Soon:But we found out from a set of data, basically from studying isotope data, carbon 13 or carbon eight eighteen stable isotope. In three rings, that is annually resolved. In places basically, it's in High Scandinavia area, Norway and those places where under the slope where it's not limited by water and all that. It's only limit not by temperature. It's limited by sunshine.
Willie Soon:So, this isotope is telling you something about sunshine. When you have sunshine information, what does that mean? It tells you about the transparency of the atmosphere. So, you have a way to diagnose the cloud. When you study those record, it actually tell you that on those multi decade or time scale, you have to figure out something else because cloud is not at all enforcing.
Willie Soon:It turned into a feedback in a sense. So, that's why the concept of forcing and feedback is very artificial. This is what I mean by we don't understand the connection between meteorology and climate, right? That's the problem. There's no separation of the skill.
Willie Soon:Sorry that you're getting into a lot of details, but someday, I mean, you guys can all drink beer with me together and then I will talk much more fluently. But it's a lot easier. There's a lot of problem, but it's very, very interesting to resolve this. I'm pushing really hard on this topic also myself. But we need more empirical data to start even because we don't know where to begin on this problem on the cloud thing.
Willie Soon:So the cloud, I would say, yeah, the smart time is good, but it's also not gonna go too far because you're ultimately still defeated by the problem of what cloud is and what does it do. And plus, I remember, you cannot just focus on the low cloud. You have to do so ice cloud. You do all the Linzan. Richard Linzan from MIT have a hypothesis that very famous, right?
Willie Soon:It's called the Iris hypothesis. Because through through this ice cloud, the high iCloud, ice cloud, I think I would say near the tropopause region. Able to modulate the IR emission long wave outside. So it's actually one way to also study that. And I think that mechanism ought to be studied a lot more.
Willie Soon:It's just that we don't have enough good enough of data because all this cloud is manifesting in minutes and hours. If you don't have good enough time resolution, you can do anything. You can always keep speculating, scratching your head, and talking nonsense all day long. So I think yeah. Yeah.
Willie Soon:That probably is enough for one podcast, but it is that very, very interesting. I think I truly believe that if people give me a lot of money, I can start my institute, my whole university, can beat Jordan Peterson that we will focus on this Because I actually know a lot of talent, so I'm trying to recruit. My group now has a minimal amount of things that we have at series that sign, please. Please, but we are trying our best to put out nothing but science. You know, I really you you cut the blood here.
Willie Soon:You will see blood out the word with the letter s c I n c e. Yeah.
Linnea Lueken:Well, unfortunately, we're kinda running up on our time here, and we have a bunch more questions, but we're not going to be able to get to all of them. But I'm just going to put this one up because it's funny and it's from a friend of ours who has attended some of our conferences. He also knows Doctor. Soon. And he says, Dear Willie, have practiced your Frank Sinatra songs lately?
Willie Soon:Fly me to the moon. Yeah, I did that one. It was good. It was only playing with my daughter. My daughter Emily was very young at that time.
Willie Soon:It was just fun. Yeah, very fun.
Jim Lakely:Yeah, well, I can attest from personal experience that Willie Soon actually does become more coherent after about at least two beers.
Willie Soon:Yeah. Yeah. Minimal. It's true.
Jim Lakely:He's not like. Anyone else have another comment before we wrap?
Anthony Watts:Yeah. Jim, I'd like to point out after listening to all this and, you know, seeing the relationship between the sun and the earth and and thinking about it deeply. You know? And this is something that you can tell your liberal friends on social media. That everything here on earth, whether it's the temperature, our minerals, our bodies, whatever it is, is all nuclear powered by the sun.
Anthony Watts:That'll get them.
Willie Soon:Yep. It's all converted energy. Everything we see here, the ocean, the movement of the air, the movement of the current, everything. There's no energy, intrinsic energy from the from the earth, the radiogenic. It's been measured through geometry measurements, okay?
Willie Soon:It's 10 times smaller than the actually converted energy from the sun. Period. Science is all measurement, buddy.
Jim Lakely:Yes. Well, that will do it for today's show. Gosh, Willie, that was a whole lot of fun, I know we're gonna have you back on again sometime for sure. Maybe we'll do it late at night when we can have an adult beverage instead of the middle of the day. Who knows?
Jim Lakely:Fine. Thanks, Willie Soon for joining us. He's at the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences. That's seriesscience.com. Definitely check out that website.
Jim Lakely:They also take donations, so his work can be supported. Always visit heart, climaterealism.com, climate@aglance.com. What's up with that? And always visit heartland.org where you can subscribe to our weekly our climate change weekly newsletter and also donate to help support this program. Thank you very much, Anthony Watts.
Jim Lakely:Thank you, Lanea Lewin Lanea Luken. And thank you, Willie Sue, for being on the show today. And thanks you, everybody in the audience. We wouldn't be here without you, and we will talk to you next week. Bye bye.
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